Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co., Ltd. (000025.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.99 - $26.74$14.22
Multi-Stage$6.01 - $6.56$6.28
Blended Fair Value$10.25
Current Price$17.54
Upside-41.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.31%0.84%0.050.070.050.020.040.020.030.010.040.03
YoY Growth---38.55%51.69%101.08%-42.62%154.48%-52.90%205.51%-74.35%63.15%-34.04%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.47%0.26%0.16%0.28%0.09%0.15%0.04%0.13%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)152.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.4319.0211.41
Cash Retained (M)106.26106.26106.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.43-19.02-11.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.8387.2494.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)431.06431.06431.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.99$14.22$26.74
Upside / Downside-48.73%-18.92%52.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)152.15162.03172.57183.78195.73208.45214.71
Payout Ratio30.16%42.13%54.10%66.06%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.8968.2693.35121.42152.73187.61198.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)62.1562.7363.32
Year 2 PV (M)77.3778.8480.33
Year 3 PV (M)91.6194.2496.92
Year 4 PV (M)104.91108.95113.10
Year 5 PV (M)117.32122.99128.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,136.622,239.822,346.97
Equity Value (M)2,589.972,707.572,829.51
Shares Outstanding (M)431.06431.06431.06
Fair Value$6.01$6.28$6.56
Upside / Downside-65.74%-64.19%-62.58%

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