Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.45 - $152.29$142.72
Multi-Stage$23.47 - $25.70$24.56
Blended Fair Value$83.64
Current Price$7.25
Upside1,053.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS18.93%0.00%0.120.100.090.000.010.050.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth--21.01%14.55%21,323.53%-94.11%-86.40%-3.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.49%0.94%0.87%0.00%0.08%0.52%0.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)195.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.1524.4714.68
Cash Retained (M)140.41140.41140.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.15-24.47-14.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.26115.94125.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)255.61255.61255.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.45$142.72$152.29
Upside / Downside968.28%1,868.49%2,000.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)195.73208.45222.00236.43251.80268.16276.21
Payout Ratio28.26%40.61%52.96%65.31%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.3284.65117.57154.40195.53241.35255.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)78.8679.6180.36
Year 2 PV (M)102.03103.98105.94
Year 3 PV (M)124.84128.42132.07
Year 4 PV (M)147.27152.94158.76
Year 5 PV (M)169.35177.53186.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,376.495,636.185,905.80
Equity Value (M)5,998.856,278.656,568.96
Shares Outstanding (M)255.61255.61255.61
Fair Value$23.47$24.56$25.70
Upside / Downside223.71%238.81%254.48%

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