Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Compass Group PLC (XGR2.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.41 - $287.56$269.49
Multi-Stage$40.23 - $43.98$42.07
Blended Fair Value$155.78
Current Price$25.71
Upside505.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.10%8.05%0.560.460.270.000.320.440.421.200.380.40
YoY Growth--21.80%69.38%0.00%-100.00%-26.86%5.19%-65.26%217.98%-6.68%55.98%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.28%1.49%0.00%2.74%2.19%2.08%6.02%1.93%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,475.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,526.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)948.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)495.16309.48185.69
Cash Retained (M)948.94948.94948.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-495.16-309.48-185.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)453.78639.46763.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,712.251,712.251,712.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.370.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.370.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.41$269.49$287.56
Upside / Downside282.76%948.19%1,018.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,475.822,636.752,808.142,990.673,185.063,392.093,493.86
Payout Ratio61.67%67.34%73.00%78.67%84.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,526.881,775.522,050.032,352.722,686.103,052.883,231.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,647.781,663.401,679.02
Year 2 PV (M)1,765.671,799.301,833.25
Year 3 PV (M)1,880.601,934.581,989.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,992.612,069.242,148.06
Year 5 PV (M)2,101.772,203.292,308.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,489.0262,362.3665,345.67
Equity Value (M)68,877.4672,032.1875,304.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,712.251,712.251,712.25
Fair Value$40.23$42.07$43.98
Upside / Downside56.46%63.63%71.06%

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