Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $36.76 - $53.79 | $44.97 |
| Multi-Stage | $52.34 - $57.34 | $54.79 |
| Blended Fair Value | $49.88 | |
| Current Price | $128.27 | |
| Upside | -61.11% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -24.44% | -17.39% | 1.32 | 0.80 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.03 | 5.35 | 5.38 | 3.03 | 3.07 | 4.72 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 64.71% | 5,763.88% | -6.95% | -98.57% | -80.80% | -0.57% | 77.63% | -1.37% | -34.84% | -47.07% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.58% | 0.75% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.82% | 8.89% | 4.16% | 1.66% | 2.68% | 5.05% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 504.28 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 176.38 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 327.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 100.86 | 63.03 | 37.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 327.90 | 327.90 | 327.90 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -100.86 | -63.03 | -37.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 227.04 | 264.86 | 290.08 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 105.85 | 105.85 | 105.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.14 | 2.50 | 2.74 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.14 | 2.50 | 2.74 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.81 | 4.17 | 4.41 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.83% | 9.83% | 9.83% |
| Growth Rate | -0.48% | 0.52% | 1.52% |
| Fair Value | $36.76 | $44.97 | $53.79 |
| Upside / Downside | -71.34% | -64.94% | -58.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 504.28 | 506.88 | 509.50 | 512.14 | 514.79 | 517.45 | 532.97 |
| Payout Ratio | 34.98% | 45.98% | 56.99% | 67.99% | 79.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 176.38 | 233.07 | 290.35 | 348.21 | 406.66 | 465.70 | 493.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.83% | 9.83% | 9.83% |
| Growth Rate | -0.48% | 0.52% | 1.52% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 210.09 | 212.21 | 214.32 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 235.92 | 240.68 | 245.50 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 255.04 | 262.80 | 270.73 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 268.48 | 279.44 | 290.73 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 277.15 | 291.36 | 306.15 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,293.50 | 4,513.59 | 4,742.62 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,540.19 | 5,800.09 | 6,070.03 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 105.85 | 105.85 | 105.85 |
| Fair Value | $52.34 | $54.79 | $57.34 |
| Upside / Downside | -59.20% | -57.28% | -55.29% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |