Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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VICOM Ltd (WJP.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.82 - $1.28$1.03
Multi-Stage$1.61 - $1.77$1.69
Blended Fair Value$1.36
Current Price$1.46
Upside-6.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.52%-0.46%0.060.060.090.090.060.110.090.080.070.07
YoY Growth---8.56%-29.09%-7.56%52.49%-47.08%26.31%14.93%13.95%2.80%16.13%
Dividend Yield--4.11%4.40%4.58%4.54%2.81%5.95%5.58%5.20%4.79%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.143.842.30
Cash Retained (M)10.1510.1510.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.14-3.84-2.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.016.317.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)354.35354.35354.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-1.20%-0.20%0.80%
Fair Value$0.82$1.03$1.28
Upside / Downside-43.58%-29.15%-12.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.7230.6630.6030.5430.4830.4231.33
Payout Ratio66.95%71.56%76.17%80.78%85.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.5721.9423.3124.6726.0227.3728.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-1.20%-0.20%0.80%
Year 1 PV (M)20.2720.4820.68
Year 2 PV (M)19.9120.3120.72
Year 3 PV (M)19.4720.0720.68
Year 4 PV (M)18.9819.7620.57
Year 5 PV (M)18.4619.4120.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)474.23498.72524.21
Equity Value (M)571.32598.75627.26
Shares Outstanding (M)354.35354.35354.35
Fair Value$1.61$1.69$1.77
Upside / Downside10.43%15.73%21.24%

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