Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT WEHA Transportasi Indonesia Tbk (WEHA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$210.89 - $373.55$279.70
Multi-Stage$374.96 - $412.09$393.17
Blended Fair Value$336.43
Current Price$115.00
Upside192.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%6.000.000.000.000.000.001.650.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,943.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,763.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,180.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,588.752,867.971,720.78
Cash Retained (M)14,180.4014,180.4014,180.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,588.75-2,867.97-1,720.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,591.6611,312.4412,459.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,460.561,460.561,460.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.577.758.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.577.758.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.5713.7514.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate0.41%1.41%2.41%
Fair Value$210.89$279.70$373.55
Upside / Downside83.38%143.22%224.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,943.7323,267.9823,596.8223,930.3024,268.4924,611.4625,349.81
Payout Ratio38.19%48.56%58.92%69.28%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,763.3311,297.9813,902.5216,578.4219,327.1822,150.3223,448.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate0.41%1.41%2.41%
Year 1 PV (M)10,513.9910,618.7010,723.40
Year 2 PV (M)12,040.0212,281.0212,524.41
Year 3 PV (M)13,361.1413,764.3214,175.52
Year 4 PV (M)14,495.5915,081.7115,685.42
Year 5 PV (M)15,460.1716,245.4817,062.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)481,783.72506,256.38531,713.58
Equity Value (M)547,654.63574,247.60601,884.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,460.561,460.561,460.56
Fair Value$374.96$393.17$412.09
Upside / Downside226.06%241.89%258.34%

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