Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vivara Participações S.A. (VIVA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$263.91 - $627.07$587.66
Multi-Stage$91.17 - $99.84$95.42
Blended Fair Value$341.54
Current Price$28.56
Upside1,095.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS97.18%0.00%0.370.360.300.180.150.010.310.610.200.00
YoY Growth--2.32%20.89%70.20%17.12%1,108.67%-95.94%-49.53%198.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.87%1.46%1.36%0.64%0.61%0.08%1.36%2.69%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)741.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)155.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)586.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)148.2992.6855.61
Cash Retained (M)586.26586.26586.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-148.29-92.68-55.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)437.97493.58530.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)235.14235.14235.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.862.102.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.862.102.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$263.91$587.66$627.07
Upside / Downside824.05%1,957.63%2,095.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)741.44789.63840.95895.62953.831,015.831,046.31
Payout Ratio20.93%34.74%48.56%62.37%76.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)155.18274.34408.35558.61726.68914.25967.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)255.16257.58260.00
Year 2 PV (M)353.24359.97366.76
Year 3 PV (M)449.44462.34475.48
Year 4 PV (M)543.78564.69586.20
Year 5 PV (M)636.30667.03698.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,199.4220,126.7621,089.59
Equity Value (M)21,437.3322,438.3723,476.97
Shares Outstanding (M)235.14235.14235.14
Fair Value$91.17$95.42$99.84
Upside / Downside219.21%234.12%249.58%

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