Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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AB Traction (TRAC-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$566.69 - $2,172.98$1,623.11
Multi-Stage$278.99 - $304.65$291.59
Blended Fair Value$957.35
Current Price$253.00
Upside278.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.78%15.56%10.458.804.852.004.203.602.752.152.552.01
YoY Growth--18.74%81.59%142.23%-52.33%16.73%30.71%27.99%-15.65%26.94%-18.41%
Dividend Yield--3.90%3.30%1.98%0.78%2.06%2.28%1.44%1.34%1.48%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)161.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.3220.2012.12
Cash Retained (M)28.5028.5028.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.32-20.20-12.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.828.3016.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.7914.7914.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.260.561.11
LTM Dividend per Share9.009.009.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.260.561.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.749.5610.11
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$566.69$1,623.11$2,172.98
Upside / Downside123.99%541.55%758.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)161.60172.10183.29195.20207.89221.41228.05
Payout Ratio82.36%83.89%85.42%86.95%88.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.10144.38156.56169.72183.93199.27210.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)133.51134.77136.04
Year 2 PV (M)133.87136.42139.00
Year 3 PV (M)134.20138.05141.98
Year 4 PV (M)134.48139.65144.97
Year 5 PV (M)134.72141.23147.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,455.533,622.433,795.72
Equity Value (M)4,126.314,312.564,505.69
Shares Outstanding (M)14.7914.7914.79
Fair Value$278.99$291.59$304.65
Upside / Downside10.27%15.25%20.41%

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