Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$410.63 - $1,854.14$948.23
Multi-Stage$211.22 - $231.14$221.00
Blended Fair Value$584.61
Current Price$50.55
Upside1,056.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%26.04%2.961.710.000.000.000.000.230.601.350.44
YoY Growth--72.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-61.06%-55.86%209.45%48.93%
Dividend Yield--7.73%2.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.00%6.70%8.22%1.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)254.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.7740.4824.29
Cash Retained (M)254.89254.89254.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.77-40.48-24.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.12214.41230.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.7334.7334.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.476.176.64
LTM Dividend per Share1.991.991.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.476.176.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.468.168.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$410.63$948.23$1,854.14
Upside / Downside712.33%1,775.82%3,567.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.84344.89367.30391.18416.60443.68456.99
Payout Ratio21.29%35.03%48.78%62.52%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.95120.83179.15244.55317.70399.32422.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.43112.48113.54
Year 2 PV (M)152.37155.27158.20
Year 3 PV (M)191.81197.32202.93
Year 4 PV (M)229.80238.63247.72
Year 5 PV (M)266.37279.23292.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,385.056,693.457,013.66
Equity Value (M)7,336.827,676.398,028.63
Shares Outstanding (M)34.7334.7334.73
Fair Value$211.22$221.00$231.14
Upside / Downside317.85%337.19%357.25%

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