Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tekno S.A. Indústria e Comércio (TKNO4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,199.48 - $2,399.42$2,248.61
Multi-Stage$373.76 - $408.95$391.03
Blended Fair Value$1,319.82
Current Price$175.00
Upside654.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%5.24%3.763.685.292.310.170.000.000.000.001.45
YoY Growth--2.20%-30.37%129.09%1,288.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-35.91%
Dividend Yield--4.30%5.04%9.04%3.30%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.114.452.67
Cash Retained (M)17.0517.0517.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.11-4.45-2.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.9312.6014.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.952.952.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.374.274.88
LTM Dividend per Share6.286.286.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.374.274.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6510.5611.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,199.48$2,248.61$2,399.42
Upside / Downside585.42%1,184.92%1,271.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.5737.8840.3442.9645.7648.7350.19
Payout Ratio52.08%59.66%67.25%74.83%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.5222.6027.1332.1537.7143.8646.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)21.0521.2521.45
Year 2 PV (M)23.5423.9924.44
Year 3 PV (M)25.9826.7327.49
Year 4 PV (M)28.3929.4830.60
Year 5 PV (M)30.7532.2433.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)972.111,019.061,067.81
Equity Value (M)1,101.821,152.741,205.57
Shares Outstanding (M)2.952.952.95
Fair Value$373.76$391.03$408.95
Upside / Downside113.58%123.45%133.69%

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