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The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$629.76 - $2,357.50$1,876.49
Multi-Stage$295.23 - $322.95$308.83
Blended Fair Value$1,092.66
Current Price$100.95
Upside982.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.93%8.33%4.424.133.363.853.212.112.982.672.432.20
YoY Growth--7.03%22.92%-12.60%19.98%51.78%-29.03%11.29%10.05%10.58%10.57%
Dividend Yield--4.38%4.99%4.12%4.18%3.15%2.91%4.07%3.62%3.25%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,538.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,663.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,875.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,107.602,567.251,540.35
Cash Retained (M)12,875.0012,875.0012,875.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,107.60-2,567.25-1,540.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,767.4010,307.7511,334.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,732.551,732.551,732.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.065.956.54
LTM Dividend per Share4.424.424.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.065.956.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4810.3710.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$629.76$1,876.49$2,357.50
Upside / Downside523.84%1,758.83%2,235.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,538.0021,872.9723,294.7124,808.8726,421.4528,138.8428,983.01
Payout Ratio37.31%47.85%58.39%68.92%79.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,663.0010,466.0113,601.0417,099.4020,995.0825,324.9626,809.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,681.459,773.229,864.99
Year 2 PV (M)11,638.3311,860.0012,083.77
Year 3 PV (M)13,535.0113,923.5514,319.46
Year 4 PV (M)15,372.8615,964.0516,572.14
Year 5 PV (M)17,153.1917,981.7018,841.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)444,117.16465,568.18487,840.19
Equity Value (M)511,497.99535,070.70559,522.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,732.551,732.551,732.55
Fair Value$295.23$308.83$322.95
Upside / Downside192.45%205.93%219.91%

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