Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Suparma Tbk (SPMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$325.27 - $505.18$408.48
Multi-Stage$748.77 - $824.78$786.03
Blended Fair Value$597.25
Current Price$196.92
Upside203.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%11.970.000.0010.030.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.72%0.00%0.00%2.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108,892.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,759.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)71,132.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,778.5613,611.608,166.96
Cash Retained (M)71,132.8371,132.8371,132.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,778.56-13,611.60-8,166.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)49,354.2757,521.2362,965.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,154.093,154.093,154.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.6518.2419.96
LTM Dividend per Share11.9711.9711.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.6518.2419.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.6230.2131.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$325.27$408.48$505.18
Upside / Downside65.18%107.43%156.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108,892.79107,803.86106,725.82105,658.57104,601.98103,555.96106,662.64
Payout Ratio34.68%45.74%56.81%67.87%78.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,759.9649,310.5860,626.4271,711.0182,567.8493,200.3698,662.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45,910.2746,378.7446,847.21
Year 2 PV (M)52,553.4653,631.4654,720.39
Year 3 PV (M)57,875.5359,665.3761,491.73
Year 4 PV (M)62,042.5764,613.9567,264.43
Year 5 PV (M)65,202.7968,598.0672,133.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,078,099.232,186,310.682,298,983.76
Equity Value (M)2,361,683.872,479,198.252,601,440.84
Shares Outstanding (M)3,154.093,154.093,154.09
Fair Value$748.77$786.03$824.78
Upside / Downside280.24%299.16%318.84%

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