Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SpareBank 1 Østfold Akershus (SOAG.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,731.94 - $9,878.22$8,659.67
Multi-Stage$1,259.41 - $1,377.46$1,317.36
Blended Fair Value$4,988.51
Current Price$451.85
Upside1,004.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.23%24.04%22.3118.3416.637.2312.3615.029.566.973.673.45
YoY Growth--21.61%10.28%130.11%-41.51%-17.71%57.12%37.16%89.74%6.49%33.33%
Dividend Yield--5.34%5.59%5.26%1.95%4.32%7.15%4.35%3.52%2.14%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)271.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)368.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.8079.8847.93
Cash Retained (M)368.00368.00368.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.80-79.88-47.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)240.20288.13320.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.8612.8612.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share18.6722.4024.88
LTM Dividend per Share21.0721.0721.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share18.6722.4024.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend39.7443.4645.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,731.94$8,659.67$9,878.22
Upside / Downside504.61%1,816.49%2,086.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.00680.54724.77771.88822.05875.49901.75
Payout Ratio42.41%51.93%61.45%70.96%80.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)271.00353.39445.34547.76661.60787.94834.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)327.06330.16333.26
Year 2 PV (M)381.46388.73396.06
Year 3 PV (M)434.24446.70459.40
Year 4 PV (M)485.42504.08523.28
Year 5 PV (M)535.04560.88587.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,038.8714,716.9615,420.99
Equity Value (M)16,202.0916,947.5217,720.72
Shares Outstanding (M)12.8612.8612.86
Fair Value$1,259.41$1,317.36$1,377.46
Upside / Downside178.72%191.55%204.85%

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