Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk (SMKL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.03 - $70.26$57.37
Multi-Stage$97.09 - $106.90$101.90
Blended Fair Value$79.63
Current Price$159.00
Upside-49.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.0012.0012.007.964.970.000.000.007.310.00
YoY Growth---83.33%0.00%50.80%60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.34%6.19%4.05%1.92%2.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,675.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,500.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,175.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,535.042,209.401,325.64
Cash Retained (M)12,175.1912,175.1912,175.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,535.04-2,209.40-1,325.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,640.169,965.7910,849.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,418.093,418.093,418.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.532.923.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.532.923.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.144.524.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$46.03$57.37$70.26
Upside / Downside-71.05%-63.92%-55.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,675.1917,498.4417,323.4617,150.2216,978.7216,808.9317,313.20
Payout Ratio31.12%42.89%54.67%66.45%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,500.007,505.729,470.7711,395.7813,281.3315,128.0416,014.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6,956.307,027.287,098.26
Year 2 PV (M)8,134.998,301.868,470.42
Year 3 PV (M)9,071.969,352.529,638.80
Year 4 PV (M)9,799.0710,205.2010,623.82
Year 5 PV (M)10,344.5510,883.2111,444.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)287,550.50302,523.92318,114.71
Equity Value (M)331,857.37348,293.99365,390.10
Shares Outstanding (M)3,418.093,418.093,418.09
Fair Value$97.09$101.90$106.90
Upside / Downside-38.94%-35.91%-32.77%

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