Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.23 - $99.06$54.83
Multi-Stage$38.18 - $41.78$39.95
Blended Fair Value$47.39
Current Price$36.63
Upside29.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS8.54%5.92%1.181.211.160.790.780.780.780.760.700.66
YoY Growth---2.15%3.95%46.23%1.53%-0.25%0.00%2.88%8.52%6.02%-0.30%
Dividend Yield--3.23%3.26%5.14%2.88%3.12%2.73%2.98%2.75%2.28%2.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)736.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)592.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)144.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.2092.0055.20
Cash Retained (M)144.00144.00144.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.20-92.00-55.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.2052.0088.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.00501.00501.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.100.18
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.100.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Fair Value$35.23$54.83$99.06
Upside / Downside-3.82%49.68%170.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)736.00767.05799.40833.12868.26904.89932.03
Payout Ratio80.43%82.35%84.26%86.17%88.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)592.00631.65673.58717.93764.83814.40862.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Year 1 PV (M)586.51592.20597.88
Year 2 PV (M)580.77592.07603.49
Year 3 PV (M)574.78591.64608.84
Year 4 PV (M)568.57590.92613.93
Year 5 PV (M)562.16589.93618.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,253.2517,055.9817,890.12
Equity Value (M)19,126.0420,012.7520,933.04
Shares Outstanding (M)501.00501.00501.00
Fair Value$38.18$39.95$41.78
Upside / Downside4.22%9.05%14.07%

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