Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk (SIMP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,443.29 - $2,470.68$1,887.97
Multi-Stage$2,004.95 - $2,202.49$2,101.84
Blended Fair Value$1,994.90
Current Price$510.00
Upside291.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%0.00%10.0015.0013.003.002.673.3810.0010.005.0016.00
YoY Growth---33.33%15.38%333.34%12.26%-21.05%-66.15%0.00%100.00%-68.75%60.00%
Dividend Yield--2.59%3.97%3.25%0.60%0.55%1.61%2.28%1.68%0.80%3.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,776,204.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)155,013.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,621,191.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)355,240.80222,025.50133,215.30
Cash Retained (M)1,621,191.001,621,191.001,621,191.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-355,240.80-222,025.50-133,215.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,265,950.201,399,165.501,487,975.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,501.3115,501.3115,501.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share81.6790.2695.99
LTM Dividend per Share10.0010.0010.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share81.6790.2695.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend91.67100.26105.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Fair Value$1,443.29$1,887.97$2,470.68
Upside / Downside183.00%270.19%384.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,776,204.001,815,028.711,854,702.051,895,242.591,936,669.271,979,001.462,038,371.50
Payout Ratio8.73%24.98%41.24%57.49%73.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)155,013.00453,426.22764,810.951,089,591.691,428,205.301,781,101.311,885,493.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Year 1 PV (M)417,227.81421,351.20425,474.58
Year 2 PV (M)647,570.94660,433.82673,423.21
Year 3 PV (M)848,913.93874,332.45900,253.37
Year 4 PV (M)1,023,899.061,064,979.041,107,282.92
Year 5 PV (M)1,174,956.411,234,174.721,295,757.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,966,800.2428,325,938.7129,739,333.94
Equity Value (M)31,079,368.4032,581,209.9434,141,525.03
Shares Outstanding (M)15,501.3115,501.3115,501.31
Fair Value$2,004.95$2,101.84$2,202.49
Upside / Downside293.13%312.12%331.86%

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