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SHAPE Australia Corporation Limited (SHA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.58 - $85.62$52.44
Multi-Stage$12.76 - $13.96$13.35
Blended Fair Value$32.90
Current Price$4.45
Upside639.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.65%17.95%0.180.140.070.100.150.130.110.080.050.04
YoY Growth--29.75%107.33%-28.96%-34.03%9.46%21.73%37.64%71.45%24.24%5.79%
Dividend Yield--4.12%6.20%4.67%5.08%7.24%6.62%5.44%3.95%2.30%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.434.642.79
Cash Retained (M)13.4213.4213.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.43-4.64-2.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.008.7810.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Fair Value$20.58$52.44$85.62
Upside / Downside362.57%1,078.49%1,824.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.1439.2441.4643.8046.2848.8950.36
Payout Ratio63.86%69.08%74.31%79.54%84.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7127.1130.8134.8439.2344.0046.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)25.2325.4725.71
Year 2 PV (M)26.6927.2027.72
Year 3 PV (M)28.0928.9129.74
Year 4 PV (M)29.4430.5931.76
Year 5 PV (M)30.7432.2433.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)951.65997.991,046.12
Equity Value (M)1,091.851,142.401,194.84
Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
Fair Value$12.76$13.35$13.96
Upside / Downside186.69%199.96%213.73%

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