Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCA-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.03 - $35.76$30.94
Multi-Stage$83.07 - $91.87$87.38
Blended Fair Value$59.16
Current Price$124.60
Upside-52.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.46%-5.94%2.752.502.252.000.001.751.506.006.025.56
YoY Growth--9.97%11.14%12.46%0.00%-100.00%16.60%-74.99%-0.33%8.33%9.51%
Dividend Yield--2.10%1.56%1.63%1.10%0.00%1.75%1.63%6.78%9.67%10.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,540.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,107.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,433.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)708.00442.50265.50
Cash Retained (M)1,433.001,433.001,433.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-708.00-442.50-265.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)725.00990.501,167.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)702.16702.16702.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.411.66
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.411.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.034.414.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-7.94%-6.94%-5.94%
Fair Value$26.03$30.94$35.76
Upside / Downside-79.11%-75.17%-71.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,540.003,294.173,065.412,852.532,654.442,470.102,544.20
Payout Ratio59.52%65.62%71.71%77.81%83.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,107.002,161.492,198.262,219.492,227.182,223.092,353.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-7.94%-6.94%-5.94%
Year 1 PV (M)2,011.132,032.982,054.83
Year 2 PV (M)1,903.061,944.631,986.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,787.781,846.681,906.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,669.171,742.891,819.03
Year 5 PV (M)1,550.211,636.261,726.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,407.5352,150.0455,013.00
Equity Value (M)58,328.8861,353.4764,506.44
Shares Outstanding (M)702.16702.16702.16
Fair Value$83.07$87.38$91.87
Upside / Downside-33.33%-29.87%-26.27%

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