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Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited (RBD.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.97 - $21.90$13.36
Multi-Stage$10.25 - $11.23$10.73
Blended Fair Value$12.04
Current Price$2.95
Upside308.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192019201820172016
DPS4.88%2.75%0.180.160.320.000.000.140.140.190.180.16
YoY Growth--12.50%-50.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-25.32%4.72%15.62%14.29%
Dividend Yield--4.83%4.31%5.06%0.00%0.00%1.70%1.86%2.64%2.55%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.516.573.94
Cash Retained (M)30.0730.0730.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.51-6.57-3.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5723.5126.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.76124.76124.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.88%3.88%4.88%
Fair Value$8.97$13.36$21.90
Upside / Downside203.90%352.76%642.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.5354.5656.6858.8861.1663.5365.44
Payout Ratio42.75%52.20%61.65%71.10%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.4628.4834.9441.8649.2657.1860.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.88%3.88%4.88%
Year 1 PV (M)26.4326.6826.94
Year 2 PV (M)30.0830.6731.26
Year 3 PV (M)33.4434.4235.42
Year 4 PV (M)36.5137.9539.43
Year 5 PV (M)39.3141.2643.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,112.461,167.591,224.89
Equity Value (M)1,278.231,338.581,401.24
Shares Outstanding (M)124.76124.76124.76
Fair Value$10.25$10.73$11.23
Upside / Downside247.31%263.71%280.73%

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