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Ratch Group Public Company Limited (RATCH-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.26 - $37.74$30.49
Multi-Stage$57.51 - $63.27$60.33
Blended Fair Value$45.41
Current Price$24.20
Upside87.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.56%1.601.601.701.601.601.601.601.601.511.51
YoY Growth---0.01%-5.88%6.23%0.00%0.01%0.02%0.01%5.71%0.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.34%5.71%4.41%3.83%3.29%2.96%2.84%3.23%3.17%3.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,576.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,479.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,097.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,115.36697.10418.26
Cash Retained (M)2,097.202,097.202,097.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,115.36-697.10-418.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)981.841,400.101,678.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,175.112,175.112,175.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.640.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.640.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.26$30.49$37.74
Upside / Downside0.26%25.99%55.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,576.805,520.905,465.565,410.775,356.525,302.835,461.91
Payout Ratio62.39%67.92%73.44%78.96%84.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,479.613,749.544,013.724,272.224,525.134,772.555,052.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,492.293,527.933,563.56
Year 2 PV (M)3,481.863,553.283,625.43
Year 3 PV (M)3,451.833,558.583,667.51
Year 4 PV (M)3,405.333,546.473,691.95
Year 5 PV (M)3,345.113,519.303,700.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)107,905.04113,524.05119,374.74
Equity Value (M)125,081.46131,229.61137,623.87
Shares Outstanding (M)2,175.112,175.112,175.11
Fair Value$57.51$60.33$63.27
Upside / Downside137.63%149.31%161.46%

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