Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PT PP (Persero) Tbk (PTPP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$285.18 - $392.02$339.14
Multi-Stage$610.55 - $675.06$642.14
Blended Fair Value$490.64
Current Price$438.00
Upside12.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-42.73%-17.46%2.990.000.000.0033.8448.5746.9949.6428.6117.20
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-30.32%3.36%-5.34%73.48%66.34%-15.70%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.47%8.83%2.18%1.90%0.86%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)333,901.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18,513.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)315,387.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66,780.2141,737.6325,042.58
Cash Retained (M)315,387.92315,387.92315,387.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-66,780.21-41,737.63-25,042.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)248,607.71273,650.29290,345.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,185.346,185.346,185.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.1944.2446.94
LTM Dividend per Share2.992.992.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.1944.2446.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend43.1947.2349.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate-6.28%-5.28%-4.28%
Fair Value$285.18$339.14$392.02
Upside / Downside-34.89%-22.57%-10.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)333,901.06316,260.04299,551.05283,724.84268,734.78254,536.70262,172.80
Payout Ratio5.54%22.44%39.33%56.22%73.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18,513.1470,954.84117,803.54159,503.86196,469.04229,083.03242,509.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate-6.28%-5.28%-4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)65,060.2465,754.4666,448.68
Year 2 PV (M)99,043.42101,168.37103,315.88
Year 3 PV (M)122,962.34126,940.68131,003.92
Year 4 PV (M)138,876.47144,899.53151,116.40
Year 5 PV (M)148,477.65156,570.15165,011.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,202,018.113,376,537.993,558,585.76
Equity Value (M)3,776,438.233,971,871.184,175,482.35
Shares Outstanding (M)6,185.346,185.346,185.34
Fair Value$610.55$642.14$675.06
Upside / Downside39.39%46.61%54.12%

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