Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Poste Italiane S.p.A. (PST.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.02 - $328.74$130.69
Multi-Stage$49.27 - $53.94$51.56
Blended Fair Value$91.12
Current Price$20.19
Upside351.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.52%8.83%0.900.680.620.510.470.600.420.390.340.19
YoY Growth--31.94%10.24%21.00%7.99%-20.80%40.98%7.86%14.64%77.60%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--5.48%5.92%6.58%4.96%4.37%7.75%4.90%5.30%5.49%2.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,166.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,409.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)757.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)433.20270.75162.45
Cash Retained (M)757.00757.00757.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-433.20-270.75-162.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)323.80486.25594.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,294.081,294.081,294.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.380.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.380.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.461.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$64.02$130.69$328.74
Upside / Downside217.11%547.28%1,528.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,166.002,277.902,395.582,519.332,649.482,786.362,869.95
Payout Ratio65.05%70.04%75.03%80.02%85.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,409.001,595.451,797.412,015.982,252.332,507.722,654.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)1,486.001,500.271,514.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,559.261,589.341,619.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,628.891,676.251,724.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,695.011,761.041,828.98
Year 5 PV (M)1,757.741,843.751,933.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,633.9958,356.2161,183.95
Equity Value (M)63,760.8866,726.8569,804.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,294.081,294.081,294.08
Fair Value$49.27$51.56$53.94
Upside / Downside144.04%155.39%167.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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