Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.85 - $60.93$49.70
Multi-Stage$58.15 - $63.62$60.83
Blended Fair Value$55.27
Current Price$105.11
Upside-47.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.85%5.59%2.712.612.492.342.162.041.981.891.811.67
YoY Growth--4.01%4.91%6.34%8.06%5.98%3.31%4.38%4.83%8.09%6.09%
Dividend Yield--2.48%1.82%1.86%1.78%1.44%2.44%1.73%1.70%1.72%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)996.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)626.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)370.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)199.20124.5074.70
Cash Retained (M)370.00370.00370.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-199.20-124.50-74.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)170.80245.50295.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)229.35229.35229.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.741.071.29
LTM Dividend per Share2.732.732.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.741.071.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.804.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate0.33%1.33%2.33%
Fair Value$39.85$49.70$60.93
Upside / Downside-62.09%-52.71%-42.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)996.001,009.231,022.631,036.221,049.981,063.931,095.85
Payout Ratio62.85%68.28%73.71%79.14%84.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)626.00689.11753.79820.07887.97957.541,013.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate0.33%1.33%2.33%
Year 1 PV (M)625.54631.78638.01
Year 2 PV (M)621.14633.58646.15
Year 3 PV (M)613.41631.94650.83
Year 4 PV (M)602.93627.34652.47
Year 5 PV (M)590.19620.20651.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,284.6010,807.4711,351.39
Equity Value (M)13,337.8213,952.3014,590.27
Shares Outstanding (M)229.35229.35229.35
Fair Value$58.15$60.83$63.62
Upside / Downside-44.67%-42.12%-39.48%

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