Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pharmanutra S.p.A. (PHN.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.56 - $363.91$341.04
Multi-Stage$53.75 - $58.79$56.22
Blended Fair Value$198.63
Current Price$39.55
Upside402.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.04%0.00%0.860.810.720.680.470.510.340.180.130.00
YoY Growth--5.94%12.58%5.64%45.65%-8.00%51.49%89.46%34.24%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.73%1.43%1.29%1.08%1.25%2.31%1.99%1.34%0.94%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.492.181.31
Cash Retained (M)7.867.867.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.49-2.18-1.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.375.686.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.549.549.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.600.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.600.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$149.56$341.04$363.91
Upside / Downside278.15%762.30%820.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17.4518.5819.7921.0822.4523.9124.62
Payout Ratio54.97%61.98%68.98%75.99%82.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.5911.5213.6516.0218.6321.5122.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.7110.8110.91
Year 2 PV (M)11.8012.0312.26
Year 3 PV (M)12.8813.2513.62
Year 4 PV (M)13.9314.4615.01
Year 5 PV (M)14.9615.6816.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)448.20469.85492.33
Equity Value (M)512.48536.08560.56
Shares Outstanding (M)9.549.549.54
Fair Value$53.75$56.22$58.79
Upside / Downside35.89%42.15%48.64%

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