Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA (OLT.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,812.87 - $4,954.50$4,643.00
Multi-Stage$737.31 - $807.39$771.70
Blended Fair Value$2,707.35
Current Price$273.00
Upside891.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.38%16.96%7.366.807.125.340.134.702.642.212.001.75
YoY Growth--8.18%-4.49%33.40%3,884.62%-97.15%78.13%19.63%10.31%14.12%14.09%
Dividend Yield--2.84%3.08%4.17%2.84%0.08%4.16%1.74%1.56%1.24%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,422.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)744.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,678.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)484.40302.75181.65
Cash Retained (M)1,678.001,678.001,678.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-484.40-302.75-181.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,193.601,375.251,496.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.0197.0197.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.3014.1815.43
LTM Dividend per Share7.677.677.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.3014.1815.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.9721.8523.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.27%6.27%7.27%
Fair Value$1,812.87$4,643.00$4,954.50
Upside / Downside564.05%1,600.73%1,714.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,422.002,573.742,734.982,906.333,088.413,281.903,380.36
Payout Ratio30.72%42.57%54.43%66.29%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)744.001,095.761,488.681,926.532,413.402,953.713,126.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.27%6.27%7.27%
Year 1 PV (M)1,019.921,029.611,039.30
Year 2 PV (M)1,289.741,314.361,339.22
Year 3 PV (M)1,553.561,598.261,643.81
Year 4 PV (M)1,811.481,881.301,953.12
Year 5 PV (M)2,063.592,163.492,267.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,785.7866,873.6770,080.00
Equity Value (M)71,524.0774,860.6978,322.66
Shares Outstanding (M)97.0197.0197.01
Fair Value$737.31$771.70$807.39
Upside / Downside170.08%182.67%195.75%

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