Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $109.06 - $289.32 | $166.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $75.78 - $82.73 | $79.19 |
| Blended Fair Value | $122.98 | |
| Current Price | $154.46 | |
| Upside | -20.38% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 32.21% | 0.00% | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.24 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 14.14% | 17.09% | 50.26% | 33.35% | 50.88% | 66.63% | 100.18% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.15% | 0.84% | 0.77% | 0.48% | 0.25% | 0.30% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 221.68 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 82.56 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 139.12 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 44.34 | 27.71 | 16.63 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 139.12 | 139.12 | 139.12 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -44.34 | -27.71 | -16.63 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 94.79 | 111.41 | 122.50 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 47.68 | 47.68 | 47.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.99 | 2.34 | 2.57 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.99 | 2.34 | 2.57 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.72 | 4.07 | 4.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $109.06 | $166.77 | $289.32 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.39% | 7.97% | 87.31% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 221.68 | 236.09 | 251.43 | 267.78 | 285.18 | 303.72 | 312.83 |
| Payout Ratio | 37.24% | 47.79% | 58.34% | 68.90% | 79.45% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 82.56 | 112.83 | 146.70 | 184.49 | 226.57 | 273.35 | 289.37 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 102.45 | 103.42 | 104.39 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 120.95 | 123.25 | 125.58 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 138.11 | 142.07 | 146.11 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 154.01 | 159.93 | 166.02 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 168.71 | 176.86 | 185.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,928.82 | 3,070.28 | 3,217.16 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,613.05 | 3,775.82 | 3,944.59 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 47.68 | 47.68 | 47.68 |
| Fair Value | $75.78 | $79.19 | $82.73 |
| Upside / Downside | -50.94% | -48.73% | -46.44% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |