Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $25.55 - $45.04 | $33.82 |
| Multi-Stage | $43.07 - $47.17 | $45.08 |
| Blended Fair Value | $39.45 | |
| Current Price | $30.25 | |
| Upside | 30.41% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.07% | -0.76% | 1.78 | 1.79 | 2.02 | 1.78 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.66% | -11.16% | 13.50% | -14.59% | 0.00% | 1.22% | 2.74% | 2.19% | 0.08% | 1.85% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.69% | 5.62% | 5.92% | 5.52% | 5.58% | 6.38% | 5.52% | 4.95% | 5.24% | 5.47% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 129.30 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 126.90 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 25.86 | 16.16 | 9.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -25.86 | -16.16 | -9.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -23.46 | -13.76 | -7.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 67.55 | 67.55 | 67.55 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.35 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.35 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.77 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.84% | 6.84% | 6.84% |
| Growth Rate | 0.80% | 1.80% | 2.80% |
| Fair Value | $25.55 | $33.82 | $45.04 |
| Upside / Downside | -15.54% | 11.80% | 48.89% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 129.30 | 131.62 | 133.99 | 136.39 | 138.84 | 141.33 | 145.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 98.14% | 96.52% | 94.89% | 93.26% | 91.63% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 126.90 | 127.03 | 127.13 | 127.19 | 127.22 | 127.20 | 134.66 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.84% | 6.84% | 6.84% |
| Growth Rate | 0.80% | 1.80% | 2.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 117.74 | 118.91 | 120.07 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 109.21 | 111.38 | 113.58 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 101.26 | 104.31 | 107.41 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 93.87 | 97.65 | 101.54 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 86.99 | 91.39 | 95.97 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,400.15 | 2,521.60 | 2,647.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,909.21 | 3,045.23 | 3,186.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 67.55 | 67.55 | 67.55 |
| Fair Value | $43.07 | $45.08 | $47.17 |
| Upside / Downside | 42.37% | 49.02% | 55.94% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |