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Definitive Analysis

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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.80 - $21.45$18.03
Multi-Stage$40.91 - $45.11$42.97
Blended Fair Value$30.50
Current Price$27.00
Upside12.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.76%-1.57%1.001.521.561.781.881.981.461.341.591.12
YoY Growth---33.93%-3.07%-12.13%-5.27%-5.21%35.79%9.03%-15.86%42.62%-4.89%
Dividend Yield--3.89%7.47%5.64%6.55%8.99%12.30%5.84%6.90%7.75%6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,152.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)852.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.00250.63150.38
Cash Retained (M)852.29852.29852.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.00-250.63-150.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)451.29601.67701.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Fair Value$14.80$18.03$21.45
Upside / Downside-45.17%-33.21%-20.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,005.001,935.431,868.261,803.431,740.851,680.451,730.86
Payout Ratio57.49%63.99%70.50%77.00%83.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,152.711,238.541,317.031,388.591,453.581,512.401,601.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,152.831,164.901,176.97
Year 2 PV (M)1,141.051,165.061,189.33
Year 3 PV (M)1,119.781,155.321,191.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,091.071,137.481,185.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,056.661,113.131,172.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,670.0235,469.5837,345.27
Equity Value (M)39,231.4141,205.4743,260.51
Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
Fair Value$40.91$42.97$45.11
Upside / Downside51.51%59.13%67.07%

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