Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk (NRCA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,287.04 - $11,681.50$4,696.75
Multi-Stage$5,588.41 - $6,174.38$5,875.52
Blended Fair Value$5,286.13
Current Price$905.00
Upside484.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.88%0.09%28.8641.7914.9314.9324.8830.1640.2130.1616.4030.87
YoY Growth---30.95%180.00%0.00%-40.00%-17.51%-25.00%33.33%83.86%-46.87%7.99%
Dividend Yield--9.43%12.15%4.85%5.45%7.54%10.77%9.95%7.01%3.96%4.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153,231.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53,523.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)99,708.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30,646.2919,153.9311,492.36
Cash Retained (M)99,708.4199,708.4199,708.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-30,646.29-19,153.93-11,492.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)69,062.1280,554.4888,216.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,429.012,429.012,429.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.4333.1636.32
LTM Dividend per Share22.0322.0322.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.4333.1636.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend50.4755.2058.35
WACC / Discount Rate0.26%0.26%0.26%
Growth Rate-1.91%-0.91%0.09%
Fair Value$2,287.04$4,696.75$11,681.50
Upside / Downside152.71%418.98%1,190.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153,231.45151,843.12150,467.37149,104.09147,753.15146,414.46150,806.89
Payout Ratio34.93%45.94%56.96%67.97%78.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53,523.0469,762.2585,702.79101,348.76116,704.17131,773.01139,496.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.26%0.26%0.26%
Growth Rate-1.91%-0.91%0.09%
Year 1 PV (M)68,880.1469,582.3370,284.52
Year 2 PV (M)83,549.1785,261.3186,990.81
Year 3 PV (M)97,552.68100,566.64103,642.06
Year 4 PV (M)110,912.57115,504.90120,238.39
Year 5 PV (M)123,650.09130,082.55136,779.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,089,736.4013,770,683.1014,479,678.53
Equity Value (M)13,574,281.0614,271,680.8314,997,614.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,429.012,429.012,429.01
Fair Value$5,588.41$5,875.52$6,174.38
Upside / Downside517.50%549.23%582.25%

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