Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNC.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,840.62 - $4,393.42$4,117.28
Multi-Stage$707.72 - $775.63$741.05
Blended Fair Value$2,429.16
Current Price$85.35
Upside2,746.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.009.0519.950.010.064.361.521.002.800.79
YoY Growth---100.00%-54.65%145,984.00%-77.88%-98.58%186.88%52.02%-64.29%253.20%158.65%
Dividend Yield--0.00%8.86%21.82%0.01%0.09%8.42%2.00%2.24%13.40%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40,432.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,727.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)37,705.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,086.515,054.073,032.44
Cash Retained (M)37,705.5337,705.5337,705.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,086.51-5,054.07-3,032.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)29,619.0332,651.4734,673.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,830.241,830.241,830.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.1817.8418.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.1817.8418.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.6719.3320.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,840.62$4,117.28$4,393.42
Upside / Downside3,228.20%4,724.00%5,047.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40,432.5343,060.6545,859.5948,840.4652,015.0955,396.0757,057.96
Payout Ratio6.74%23.40%40.05%56.70%73.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,727.0010,074.3218,365.2727,691.4838,152.5049,856.4752,778.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,400.979,490.089,579.18
Year 2 PV (M)15,992.3016,296.9116,604.39
Year 3 PV (M)22,501.7623,147.7023,805.89
Year 4 PV (M)28,930.1130,042.6831,187.04
Year 5 PV (M)35,278.1136,982.0638,751.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,183,185.981,240,334.311,299,669.84
Equity Value (M)1,295,289.231,356,293.741,419,597.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1,830.241,830.241,830.24
Fair Value$707.72$741.05$775.63
Upside / Downside729.19%768.24%808.77%

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