Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nilörngruppen AB (NIL-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.74 - $584.68$254.04
Multi-Stage$144.66 - $158.66$151.53
Blended Fair Value$202.78
Current Price$51.90
Upside290.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.21%-10.40%1.005.065.002.000.004.004.003.603.003.50
YoY Growth---80.24%1.20%149.98%0.00%-100.00%0.00%11.11%20.00%-14.29%16.67%
Dividend Yield--1.64%7.31%6.94%2.01%0.00%16.26%5.47%4.11%3.52%7.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.827.394.43
Cash Retained (M)41.9841.9841.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.82-7.39-4.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.1734.6037.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.4011.4011.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.653.033.29
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.653.033.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.154.534.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.47%4.47%5.47%
Fair Value$149.74$254.04$584.68
Upside / Downside188.51%389.48%1,026.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.0961.7364.4967.3770.3873.5375.73
Payout Ratio28.94%41.16%53.37%65.58%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.1025.4034.4144.1854.7566.1770.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.47%4.47%5.47%
Year 1 PV (M)23.6623.8924.12
Year 2 PV (M)29.8630.4431.02
Year 3 PV (M)35.7036.7437.81
Year 4 PV (M)41.2142.8244.49
Year 5 PV (M)46.3948.6851.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,472.591,545.141,620.52
Equity Value (M)1,649.401,727.711,809.00
Shares Outstanding (M)11.4011.4011.40
Fair Value$144.66$151.53$158.66
Upside / Downside178.73%191.96%205.70%

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