Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nelly Group AB (publ) (NELLY.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.80 - $44.99$38.32
Multi-Stage$47.07 - $51.70$49.34
Blended Fair Value$43.83
Current Price$78.50
Upside-44.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.830.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)146.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.3018.3110.99
Cash Retained (M)121.60121.60121.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.30-18.31-10.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.30103.29110.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.083.443.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.083.443.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.914.274.52
WACC / Discount Rate10.04%10.04%10.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$31.80$38.32$44.99
Upside / Downside-59.49%-51.19%-42.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)146.50145.04143.58142.15140.73139.32143.50
Payout Ratio17.00%31.60%46.20%60.80%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9045.8366.3386.42106.11125.39132.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.04%10.04%10.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41.2341.6542.07
Year 2 PV (M)53.6854.7855.90
Year 3 PV (M)62.9264.8766.85
Year 4 PV (M)69.4972.3775.34
Year 5 PV (M)73.8877.7281.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,111.361,169.231,229.48
Equity Value (M)1,412.561,480.621,551.37
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
Fair Value$47.07$49.34$51.70
Upside / Downside-40.03%-37.14%-34.14%

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