Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MTY Food Group Inc. (MTY.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.09 - $327.54$306.95
Multi-Stage$46.21 - $50.50$48.31
Blended Fair Value$177.63
Current Price$42.82
Upside314.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.91%15.22%1.141.040.880.390.200.710.620.420.400.33
YoY Growth--9.85%18.95%124.46%97.30%-72.28%15.02%47.78%5.56%21.78%17.64%
Dividend Yield--2.57%2.06%1.36%0.76%0.37%1.39%1.05%0.82%0.76%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.724.832.90
Cash Retained (M)10.1310.1310.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.72-4.83-2.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.415.317.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.4523.4523.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.230.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.230.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.09$306.95$327.54
Upside / Downside161.77%616.85%664.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.6241.1343.8046.6549.6852.9154.50
Payout Ratio73.76%77.01%80.26%83.50%86.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4931.6735.1538.9543.1047.6250.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.3929.6729.95
Year 2 PV (M)30.2830.8531.44
Year 3 PV (M)31.1432.0332.94
Year 4 PV (M)31.9733.2034.47
Year 5 PV (M)32.7834.3736.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)927.94972.761,019.29
Equity Value (M)1,083.501,132.881,184.10
Shares Outstanding (M)23.4523.4523.45
Fair Value$46.21$48.31$50.50
Upside / Downside7.91%12.83%17.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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