Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.86 - $36.37$30.41
Multi-Stage$57.03 - $62.92$59.91
Blended Fair Value$45.16
Current Price$31.67
Upside42.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.12%-1.52%0.510.480.430.400.230.260.280.180.080.54
YoY Growth--6.50%11.14%6.41%72.38%-10.84%-7.73%56.03%131.15%-85.34%-9.17%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.73%1.42%1.24%0.81%2.74%1.32%0.57%0.31%3.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,585.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,136.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)517.00323.13193.88
Cash Retained (M)2,136.002,136.002,136.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-517.00-323.13-193.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,619.001,812.881,942.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)775.75775.75775.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.092.342.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.092.342.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-3.52%-2.52%-1.52%
Fair Value$24.86$30.41$36.37
Upside / Downside-21.51%-3.98%14.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,585.002,519.892,456.412,394.542,334.222,275.422,343.68
Payout Ratio17.37%31.90%46.42%60.95%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)449.00803.731,140.311,459.421,761.732,047.882,167.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-3.52%-2.52%-1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)744.64752.36760.08
Year 2 PV (M)978.80999.201,019.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,160.621,197.081,234.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,298.031,352.691,409.05
Year 5 PV (M)1,397.941,471.901,548.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,658.8240,704.2242,835.30
Equity Value (M)44,238.8546,477.4548,807.50
Shares Outstanding (M)775.75775.75775.75
Fair Value$57.03$59.91$62.92
Upside / Downside80.07%89.18%98.66%

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