Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Multikarya Asia Pasifik Raya Tb (MKAP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.63 - $201.05$164.11
Multi-Stage$275.79 - $303.83$289.54
Blended Fair Value$226.82
Current Price$342.00
Upside-33.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.001.690.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%1.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47,962.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,743.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)38,218.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,592.515,995.323,597.19
Cash Retained (M)38,218.9838,218.9838,218.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,592.51-5,995.32-3,597.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)28,626.4832,223.6734,621.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,250.003,250.003,250.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.819.9110.65
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.819.9110.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.8112.9113.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$131.63$164.11$201.05
Upside / Downside-61.51%-52.01%-41.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47,962.5347,482.9047,008.0746,537.9946,072.6145,611.8846,980.24
Payout Ratio20.31%34.25%48.19%62.13%76.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,743.5416,263.8122,652.6928,912.1735,044.2041,050.7043,456.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15,075.9115,229.7515,383.58
Year 2 PV (M)19,464.4619,863.7320,267.04
Year 3 PV (M)23,028.4523,740.6224,467.32
Year 4 PV (M)25,873.8726,946.2228,051.57
Year 5 PV (M)28,094.8729,557.8431,081.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)784,789.36825,655.17868,205.90
Equity Value (M)896,326.94940,993.32987,456.53
Shares Outstanding (M)3,250.003,250.003,250.00
Fair Value$275.79$289.54$303.83
Upside / Downside-19.36%-15.34%-11.16%

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