Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$368.63 - $769.68$520.38
Multi-Stage$277.61 - $302.81$289.98
Blended Fair Value$405.18
Current Price$434.00
Upside-6.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.58%22.65%4.653.592.471.801.831.430.921.771.291.25
YoY Growth--29.66%45.20%37.41%-1.65%27.71%55.14%-47.80%36.67%3.45%107.15%
Dividend Yield--1.37%0.91%0.72%0.89%0.96%1.26%0.91%1.66%1.50%1.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)670,284.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)245,749.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)424,535.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134,056.8083,785.5050,271.30
Cash Retained (M)424,535.00424,535.00424,535.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-134,056.80-83,785.50-50,271.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)290,478.20340,749.50374,263.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33,435.3033,435.3033,435.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.6910.1911.19
LTM Dividend per Share7.357.357.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.6910.1911.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.0417.5418.54
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$368.63$520.38$769.68
Upside / Downside-15.06%19.90%77.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)670,284.00713,852.46760,252.87809,669.31862,297.81918,347.17945,897.58
Payout Ratio36.66%47.33%58.00%68.67%79.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)245,749.00337,871.59440,931.83555,962.39684,083.99826,512.45874,955.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)304,023.24306,904.98309,786.72
Year 2 PV (M)357,011.06363,811.12370,675.33
Year 3 PV (M)405,051.97416,679.55428,527.56
Year 4 PV (M)448,466.36465,713.11483,452.58
Year 5 PV (M)487,556.50511,105.67535,556.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,279,762.247,631,377.477,996,449.86
Equity Value (M)9,281,871.379,695,591.9010,124,448.16
Shares Outstanding (M)33,435.3033,435.3033,435.30
Fair Value$277.61$289.98$302.81
Upside / Downside-36.04%-33.18%-30.23%

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