Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Multi Indocitra Tbk (MICE.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$851.97 - $1,390.50$1,092.70
Multi-Stage$1,294.65 - $1,422.78$1,357.49
Blended Fair Value$1,225.09
Current Price$478.00
Upside156.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.12%-0.08%10.005.0015.004.005.0010.0610.0610.060.0010.08
YoY Growth--100.00%-66.67%275.00%-20.00%-50.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%0.98%1.81%1.06%1.72%3.05%2.40%2.89%0.00%2.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,256.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,919.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,337.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,051.225,657.013,394.21
Cash Retained (M)39,337.0539,337.0539,337.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,051.22-5,657.01-3,394.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,285.8333,680.0435,942.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)591.90591.90591.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.1756.9060.72
LTM Dividend per Share10.0010.0010.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.1756.9060.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.1766.9070.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Fair Value$851.97$1,092.70$1,390.50
Upside / Downside78.24%128.60%190.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,256.0945,891.7346,536.2947,189.9147,852.7048,524.8149,980.55
Payout Ratio13.08%28.46%43.85%59.23%74.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,919.0413,062.2520,404.9527,951.3335,705.6843,672.3346,232.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Year 1 PV (M)12,018.4612,138.1612,257.86
Year 2 PV (M)17,274.1817,619.9817,969.22
Year 3 PV (M)21,771.8522,428.8823,098.99
Year 4 PV (M)25,589.4526,624.2427,690.09
Year 5 PV (M)28,797.9130,260.8631,782.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)660,857.00694,428.82729,351.36
Equity Value (M)766,308.86803,500.94842,150.19
Shares Outstanding (M)591.90591.90591.90
Fair Value$1,294.65$1,357.49$1,422.78
Upside / Downside170.85%183.99%197.65%

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