Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Methanex Corporation (MEOH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$485.72 - $572.91$536.60
Multi-Stage$841.06 - $928.56$883.94
Blended Fair Value$710.27
Current Price$33.10
Upside2,045.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.69%-5.72%0.710.710.600.350.541.581.511.451.411.39
YoY Growth--0.99%16.97%72.88%-35.58%-65.66%4.46%4.12%2.73%1.62%8.13%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.58%1.30%0.64%1.47%12.95%2.57%2.40%3.01%4.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.7626.7216.03
Cash Retained (M)162.31162.31162.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.76-26.72-16.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.56135.59146.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.0370.0370.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.711.942.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.711.942.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Fair Value$485.72$536.60$572.91
Upside / Downside1,367.44%1,521.16%1,630.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.78214.73215.68216.63217.59218.56225.11
Payout Ratio24.08%37.26%50.45%63.63%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.4780.01108.80137.84167.14196.70208.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Year 1 PV (M)98.0299.0099.99
Year 2 PV (M)163.29166.59169.93
Year 3 PV (M)253.46261.18269.06
Year 4 PV (M)376.51391.88407.72
Year 5 PV (M)542.82570.67599.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,463.9160,411.9163,479.67
Equity Value (M)58,898.0161,901.2465,026.02
Shares Outstanding (M)70.0370.0370.03
Fair Value$841.06$883.94$928.56
Upside / Downside2,440.96%2,570.52%2,705.33%

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