Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $3.02 - $3.98 | $3.52 |
| Multi-Stage | $6.62 - $7.30 | $6.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $5.24 | |
| Current Price | $17.81 | |
| Upside | -70.59% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.47% | -2.80% | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -36.19% | -8.82% | 3.25% | 2.97% | 3.84% | 3.68% | 2.55% | 2.43% | 3.03% | 4.48% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.97% | 5.58% | 7.45% | 8.26% | 6.76% | 9.57% | 7.63% | 6.87% | 6.90% | 9.43% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 169.30 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 105.66 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 63.64 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 33.86 | 21.16 | 12.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 63.64 | 63.64 | 63.64 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -33.86 | -21.16 | -12.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 29.78 | 42.48 | 50.94 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 205.03 | 205.03 | 205.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -10.47% | -9.47% | -8.47% |
| Fair Value | $3.02 | $3.52 | $3.98 |
| Upside / Downside | -83.03% | -80.22% | -77.66% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 169.30 | 153.27 | 138.75 | 125.61 | 113.71 | 102.94 | 106.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 62.41% | 67.93% | 73.45% | 78.96% | 84.48% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 105.66 | 104.11 | 101.91 | 99.18 | 96.06 | 92.64 | 98.07 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -10.47% | -9.47% | -8.47% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 94.37 | 95.43 | 96.48 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 83.74 | 85.62 | 87.52 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 73.88 | 76.38 | 78.94 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 64.86 | 67.81 | 70.86 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 56.70 | 59.94 | 63.33 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 984.38 | 1,040.60 | 1,099.36 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,357.94 | 1,425.78 | 1,496.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 205.03 | 205.03 | 205.03 |
| Fair Value | $6.62 | $6.95 | $7.30 |
| Upside / Downside | -62.81% | -60.95% | -59.02% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |