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Definitive Analysis

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Plaza S.A. (MALLPLAZA.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51,679.28 - $60,886.94$57,059.98
Multi-Stage$10,753.38 - $11,784.79$11,259.55
Blended Fair Value$34,159.76
Current Price$2,078.80
Upside1,543.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.47%0.00%58.970.0121.294.1114.8623.2420.3817.5517.770.00
YoY Growth--1,107,739.10%-99.98%417.57%-72.31%-36.08%14.05%16.10%-1.23%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.00%0.00%2.17%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)652,860.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93,890.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)558,970.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)130,572.1381,607.5848,964.55
Cash Retained (M)558,970.38558,970.38558,970.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-130,572.13-81,607.58-48,964.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)428,398.25477,362.80510,005.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,132.442,132.442,132.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share200.90223.86239.17
LTM Dividend per Share44.0344.0344.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share200.90223.86239.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend244.93267.89283.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51,679.28$57,059.98$60,886.94
Upside / Downside2,386.01%2,644.85%2,828.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)652,860.64695,296.58740,490.86788,622.77839,883.25894,475.66921,309.93
Payout Ratio14.38%29.51%44.63%59.75%74.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93,890.26205,147.89330,472.32471,222.17628,873.27805,028.09852,211.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)191,890.68193,709.55195,528.42
Year 2 PV (M)289,140.39294,647.70300,206.97
Year 3 PV (M)385,643.69396,714.13407,994.44
Year 4 PV (M)481,404.87499,918.34518,960.73
Year 5 PV (M)576,428.20604,269.90633,177.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,006,413.5622,021,031.1923,074,480.62
Equity Value (M)22,930,921.3824,010,290.8125,130,348.34
Shares Outstanding (M)2,132.442,132.442,132.44
Fair Value$10,753.38$11,259.55$11,784.79
Upside / Downside417.29%441.64%466.90%

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