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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.58 - $61.13$33.65
Multi-Stage$15.08 - $16.45$15.76
Blended Fair Value$24.70
Current Price$39.51
Upside-37.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.25%18.15%0.640.560.480.390.340.250.260.160.120.12
YoY Growth--14.27%16.40%23.25%16.32%31.85%-3.14%68.03%29.89%-1.45%1.21%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.02%0.85%0.77%0.70%0.78%0.79%0.34%0.38%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)142.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.4517.7810.67
Cash Retained (M)57.3657.3657.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.45-17.78-10.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.9139.5846.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)162.51162.51162.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.58$33.65$61.13
Upside / Downside-45.39%-14.83%54.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)142.24151.49161.33171.82182.99194.88200.73
Payout Ratio59.68%65.74%71.81%77.87%83.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.8899.59115.84133.80153.59175.39185.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90.5791.4392.29
Year 2 PV (M)95.8297.6499.48
Year 3 PV (M)100.64103.53106.48
Year 4 PV (M)105.07109.11113.27
Year 5 PV (M)109.12114.39119.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,950.092,044.282,142.07
Equity Value (M)2,451.312,560.382,673.45
Shares Outstanding (M)162.51162.51162.51
Fair Value$15.08$15.76$16.45
Upside / Downside-61.82%-60.12%-58.36%

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