Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kion Group AG (KGX.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.05 - $122.75$71.58
Multi-Stage$46.63 - $51.07$48.81
Blended Fair Value$60.19
Current Price$57.45
Upside4.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.29%10.28%0.700.191.500.410.041.080.890.660.580.41
YoY Growth--268.67%-87.34%266.29%1,042.55%-96.68%21.15%34.41%14.34%39.96%57.39%
Dividend Yield--1.83%0.39%4.21%0.68%0.04%2.76%1.82%0.88%0.95%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3633.9820.39
Cash Retained (M)164.30164.30164.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.36-33.98-20.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.94130.33143.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.11131.11131.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate3.49%4.49%5.49%
Fair Value$47.05$71.58$122.75
Upside / Downside-18.10%24.59%113.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.80284.00296.74310.06323.98338.52348.67
Payout Ratio39.55%49.64%59.73%69.82%79.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.50140.98177.25216.49258.89304.67322.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate3.49%4.49%5.49%
Year 1 PV (M)130.33131.59132.85
Year 2 PV (M)151.48154.42157.39
Year 3 PV (M)171.04176.05181.15
Year 4 PV (M)189.09196.51204.14
Year 5 PV (M)205.72215.85226.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,265.485,524.845,794.33
Equity Value (M)6,113.146,399.266,696.24
Shares Outstanding (M)131.11131.11131.11
Fair Value$46.63$48.81$51.07
Upside / Downside-18.84%-15.04%-11.10%

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