Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC KuibyshevAzot (KAZT.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,699.80 - $14,962.51$14,022.07
Multi-Stage$27,773.51 - $30,495.35$29,108.95
Blended Fair Value$21,565.51
Current Price$458.20
Upside4,606.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.59%24.59%22.0448.9843.977.811.356.275.392.205.654.15
YoY Growth---55.00%11.39%462.91%479.13%-78.48%16.20%145.33%-61.10%36.35%69.54%
Dividend Yield--4.30%7.36%7.34%1.63%0.71%4.24%4.56%2.52%6.30%5.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,830.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,228.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,602.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,566.061,603.79962.27
Cash Retained (M)11,602.2111,602.2111,602.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,566.06-1,603.79-962.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,036.159,998.4210,639.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.53170.53170.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share52.9958.6362.39
LTM Dividend per Share7.207.207.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share52.9958.6362.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.1965.8369.59
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12,699.80$14,022.07$14,962.51
Upside / Downside2,671.67%2,960.25%3,165.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,830.3013,664.2614,552.4415,498.3516,505.7417,578.6218,105.97
Payout Ratio9.57%25.66%41.74%57.83%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,228.093,505.906,074.638,962.5012,200.1115,820.7516,748.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,297.524,338.254,378.99
Year 2 PV (M)9,127.629,301.489,476.97
Year 3 PV (M)16,507.6416,981.5217,464.38
Year 4 PV (M)27,544.7428,604.0329,693.59
Year 5 PV (M)43,784.5445,899.3548,095.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,635,079.614,858,955.695,091,400.03
Equity Value (M)4,736,341.674,964,080.325,200,509.05
Shares Outstanding (M)170.53170.53170.53
Fair Value$27,773.51$29,108.95$30,495.35
Upside / Downside5,961.44%6,252.89%6,555.47%

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