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Definitive Analysis

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Karelia Tobacco Company Inc. (KARE.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$873.97 - $2,659.00$1,391.31
Multi-Stage$857.95 - $940.22$898.32
Blended Fair Value$1,144.82
Current Price$312.00
Upside266.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.48%3.86%12.4011.8011.009.409.409.499.199.208.519.29
YoY Growth--5.08%7.29%16.99%-0.01%-0.97%3.31%-0.06%8.05%-8.39%9.41%
Dividend Yield--4.00%3.47%3.50%3.33%3.03%3.89%3.51%3.22%3.22%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0211.897.13
Cash Retained (M)58.4258.4258.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.02-11.89-7.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4046.5351.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.2716.8618.58
LTM Dividend per Share13.3013.3013.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.2716.8618.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.5730.1631.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate3.48%4.48%5.48%
Fair Value$873.97$1,391.31$2,659.00
Upside / Downside180.12%345.93%752.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.1299.39103.85108.50113.37118.45122.01
Payout Ratio38.58%48.87%59.15%69.43%79.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.7048.5761.4375.3490.37106.61112.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate3.48%4.48%5.48%
Year 1 PV (M)45.0645.5045.93
Year 2 PV (M)52.8853.9054.94
Year 3 PV (M)60.1761.9363.73
Year 4 PV (M)66.9769.6072.30
Year 5 PV (M)73.3076.9180.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,069.582,171.532,277.45
Equity Value (M)2,367.962,479.362,595.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
Fair Value$857.95$898.32$940.22
Upside / Downside174.99%187.92%201.35%

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