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The St. Joe Company (JOE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.45 - $17.83$15.08
Multi-Stage$19.64 - $21.57$20.58
Blended Fair Value$17.83
Current Price$49.48
Upside-63.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.520.440.400.320.070.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--18.25%9.22%24.69%357.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.77%0.97%0.55%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.9213.087.85
Cash Retained (M)79.4679.4679.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.92-13.08-7.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.5466.3871.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.1358.1358.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.141.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.141.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.45$15.08$17.83
Upside / Downside-74.85%-69.52%-63.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.61103.57102.53101.50100.4999.48102.47
Payout Ratio24.05%37.24%50.43%63.62%76.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.1538.5651.7064.5877.1989.5494.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.9135.2735.63
Year 2 PV (M)42.3843.2544.13
Year 3 PV (M)47.9249.4150.92
Year 4 PV (M)51.8654.0156.23
Year 5 PV (M)54.4757.3060.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)909.96957.341,006.68
Equity Value (M)1,141.501,196.581,253.83
Shares Outstanding (M)58.1358.1358.13
Fair Value$19.64$20.58$21.57
Upside / Downside-60.31%-58.40%-56.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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