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Definitive Analysis

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Investec Group (INVP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.86 - $25.28$20.14
Multi-Stage$24.74 - $27.10$25.90
Blended Fair Value$23.02
Current Price$5.56
Upside313.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.64%6.65%0.370.340.350.300.130.320.270.260.250.21
YoY Growth--8.11%-1.45%14.95%139.01%-61.08%18.27%4.46%5.22%20.33%6.84%
Dividend Yield--7.72%6.44%7.71%5.99%5.77%21.36%8.42%6.72%6.45%5.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,315.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)794.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)521.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.19164.4998.70
Cash Retained (M)521.25521.25521.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.19-164.49-98.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)258.06356.75422.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)867.29867.29867.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.410.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.410.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.331.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate0.32%1.32%2.32%
Fair Value$15.86$20.14$25.28
Upside / Downside185.18%262.18%354.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,315.941,333.261,350.811,368.581,386.591,404.841,446.99
Payout Ratio60.39%66.31%72.23%78.16%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)794.70884.11975.741,069.631,165.821,264.361,338.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate0.32%1.32%2.32%
Year 1 PV (M)810.57818.65826.73
Year 2 PV (M)820.17836.61853.20
Year 3 PV (M)824.31849.21874.60
Year 4 PV (M)823.71857.05891.39
Year 5 PV (M)819.03860.67903.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,355.4018,237.8619,155.85
Equity Value (M)21,453.1922,460.0423,505.77
Shares Outstanding (M)867.29867.29867.29
Fair Value$24.74$25.90$27.10
Upside / Downside344.89%365.77%387.46%

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