Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.26 - $158.72$123.99
Multi-Stage$199.60 - $219.62$209.42
Blended Fair Value$166.70
Current Price$114.02
Upside46.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.52%-12.11%1.591.501.430.000.004.421.223.6410.391.15
YoY Growth--5.71%5.15%0.00%0.00%-100.00%262.31%-66.44%-64.97%800.53%-80.04%
Dividend Yield--1.28%1.67%2.49%0.00%0.00%6.41%2.26%5.72%23.16%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,388.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)518.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)870.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)277.60173.50104.10
Cash Retained (M)870.00870.00870.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-277.60-173.50-104.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)592.40696.50765.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)162.95162.95162.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.644.274.70
LTM Dividend per Share3.183.183.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.644.274.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.817.457.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-0.75%0.25%1.25%
Fair Value$96.26$123.99$158.72
Upside / Downside-15.58%8.74%39.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,388.001,391.441,394.891,398.351,401.821,405.291,447.45
Payout Ratio37.32%47.86%58.39%68.93%79.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)518.00665.89814.50963.851,113.941,264.761,338.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-0.75%0.25%1.25%
Year 1 PV (M)620.33626.58632.83
Year 2 PV (M)706.86721.17735.63
Year 3 PV (M)779.24803.03827.30
Year 4 PV (M)838.96873.28908.65
Year 5 PV (M)887.37932.99980.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,693.4930,168.4631,703.48
Equity Value (M)32,526.2434,125.5135,788.35
Shares Outstanding (M)162.95162.95162.95
Fair Value$199.60$209.42$219.62
Upside / Downside75.06%83.67%92.62%

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