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Definitive Analysis

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Italgas S.p.A. (IG.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.11 - $212.79$156.17
Multi-Stage$32.12 - $35.19$33.62
Blended Fair Value$94.90
Current Price$7.20
Upside1,218.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.61%6.68%0.370.330.310.300.270.260.210.200.000.26
YoY Growth--10.85%6.80%4.16%10.02%6.36%23.47%4.00%0.00%-100.00%36.31%
Dividend Yield--6.83%6.44%6.02%4.95%5.24%4.71%4.10%3.99%0.00%6.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)874.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)317.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)556.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.90109.3165.59
Cash Retained (M)556.65556.65556.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.90-109.31-65.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)381.75447.34491.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)811.12811.12811.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Fair Value$55.11$156.17$212.79
Upside / Downside665.42%2,069.08%2,855.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)874.51924.21976.741,032.261,090.931,152.941,187.52
Payout Ratio36.35%47.08%57.81%68.54%79.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)317.85435.09564.64707.50864.771,037.641,098.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Year 1 PV (M)405.35409.22413.09
Year 2 PV (M)490.07499.48508.98
Year 3 PV (M)572.09588.64605.51
Year 4 PV (M)651.46676.72702.69
Year 5 PV (M)728.25763.71800.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,205.5724,335.3125,508.63
Equity Value (M)26,052.8027,273.0828,539.44
Shares Outstanding (M)811.12811.12811.12
Fair Value$32.12$33.62$35.19
Upside / Downside346.11%367.00%388.68%

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