Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81,130.83 - $154,808.83$145,078.55
Multi-Stage$24,004.69 - $26,288.84$25,125.72
Blended Fair Value$85,102.13
Current Price$10,500.00
Upside710.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.86%7.73%200.00188.00215.00215.00215.00137.00220.00154.00128.00111.00
YoY Growth--6.38%-12.56%0.00%0.00%56.93%-37.73%42.86%20.31%15.32%16.84%
Dividend Yield--1.97%1.67%2.16%2.93%2.34%1.34%2.38%1.86%1.57%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,077,895.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,332,382.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,745,513.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,815,579.001,134,736.88680,842.13
Cash Retained (M)6,745,513.006,745,513.006,745,513.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,815,579.00-1,134,736.88-680,842.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,929,934.005,610,776.136,064,670.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,661.9111,661.9111,661.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share422.74481.12520.04
LTM Dividend per Share200.00200.00200.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share422.74481.12520.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend622.74681.12720.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81,130.83$145,078.55$154,808.83
Upside / Downside672.67%1,281.70%1,374.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,077,895.009,667,958.1810,296,375.4610,965,639.8611,678,406.4512,437,502.8712,810,627.96
Payout Ratio25.69%38.55%51.42%64.28%77.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,332,382.003,727,421.945,293,962.757,048,405.519,008,558.8411,193,752.5811,849,830.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,473,266.853,506,188.813,539,110.77
Year 2 PV (M)4,596,635.524,684,188.524,772,567.49
Year 3 PV (M)5,702,688.695,866,392.396,033,199.38
Year 4 PV (M)6,791,624.967,052,811.697,321,460.34
Year 5 PV (M)7,863,640.918,243,457.718,637,810.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)251,512,608.10263,660,761.11276,273,852.54
Equity Value (M)279,940,465.03293,013,800.23306,578,001.50
Shares Outstanding (M)11,661.9111,661.9111,661.91
Fair Value$24,004.69$25,125.72$26,288.84
Upside / Downside128.62%139.29%150.37%

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