Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Höegh LNG Holdings Ltd. (HLNG.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.49 - $101.28$35.83
Multi-Stage$10.69 - $11.68$11.18
Blended Fair Value$23.50
Current Price$2.21
Upside963.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.020.060.060.320.250.230.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.00%0.30%-80.02%25.61%7.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.58%6.23%1.53%5.94%2.47%2.19%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.227.644.58
Cash Retained (M)36.1136.1136.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.22-7.64-4.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.8928.4731.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.49$35.83$101.28
Upside / Downside736.73%1,521.37%4,482.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.1165.0969.3273.8278.6283.7386.24
Payout Ratio40.91%50.73%60.54%70.36%80.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.0033.0241.9751.9463.0475.3679.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.3330.6230.91
Year 2 PV (M)35.4236.1036.78
Year 3 PV (M)40.2841.4442.61
Year 4 PV (M)44.9146.6448.41
Year 5 PV (M)49.3251.7154.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,082.301,134.571,188.85
Equity Value (M)1,282.571,341.071,401.74
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$10.69$11.18$11.68
Upside / Downside383.62%405.68%428.56%

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